The UK plans on replacing Vanguard-class ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) with a new fleet of Dreadnought-class vessels (UK MoD)
BELFAST —The Western world is closing in on a new nuclear age, the third of its kind, because of malign activities carried out by Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, the head of the British Armed Forces has said.
“We are at the dawn of a third nuclear age … defined by multiple and concurrent dilemmas, proliferating nuclear and disruptive technologies and the almost total absence of the security architectures that went before,” said UK Chief of the Defence Staff Adm. Tony Radakin, during a Wednesday speech in London hosted by the British Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank.
“From Russia, we have seen wild threats of tactical nuclear use, large scale nuclear exercises and simulated attacks against NATO countries, all designed to coerce us from taking the action required to maintain stability.”
He said that China’s nuclear build up offers a “two-peer challenge” to the US. Further afield, Radakin labelled Iran’s failure to engage with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) a “concern.”
He also accused North Korea of “erratic behavior” and said such action, in conjunction with its ballistic missile program, “presents a regional and increasingly a global threat.”
Radakin strongly defended the UK’s nuclear deterrent amid criticism over high costs and claimed it alone “has more impact on [Russian President Vladimir] Putin than anything else.”
For that reason, “successive British governments are investing substantial sums of money to renew both our submarines and warhead and to recapitalize our nuclear enterprise after decades of underinvestment,” added Radakin, “and this is even though the real benefits won’t be realized for another decade, at least.”
A wise general once told me that the role of senior leaders at points of tension is to reassure the nation & stiffen our resolve
Global power is shifting & a third nuclear age is upon us. My RUSI Lecture explores how Britain stays safe in dangerous timeshttps://t.co/Ylgo2xVzAS
— Chief of the Defence Staff 🇬🇧 (@AdmTonyRadakin_) December 5, 2024
The UK’s Continuous At Sea Deterrent (CASD) is overseen by Royal Navy Vanguard-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) fitted with Trident 2 D5 missiles. The aging vessels are set to be replaced by four BAE Systems Dreadnought-class types from the early 2030s onward, with each capable of carrying up to 12 Trident munitions and four Spearfish medium-range torpedoes.
Overall, the Dreadnought program has an estimated through life price tag of £31 billion ($40 billion), excluding a £10 billion contingency fund. Parliamentary figures [PDF] also indicate that by March 2023, £15 billion had been spent on the “concept, assessment, and early delivery phases” of the effort.
In a November report on UK nuclear modernization, the Federation of American Scientists said that Dreadnought delays “could threaten the [Royal] Navy’s ability to maintain their Continuous At-Sea Deterrent (CASD) as it would put additional stress on the Vanguard fleet that has already been pushed past its service life.”
It also noted that the UK holds an estimated stockpile of 225 nuclear warheads, which is forecast to increase long term, “based on shifting posture to counter Russia, modernization, and alliance efforts.”
Radakin also said there is only a “remote” chance that Russia attacks the UK — a projection that is also true for NATO as a whole — while Moscow understands that a retaliatory response would be overwhelming, “whether conventional or nuclear.”
Radakin also urged the MoD to consider a two tier equipment and acquisition approach, distinguished by opposing “fail safe” and “safe to fail” systems. Fail safe systems would see major projects delivered in much the same way as they are currently, but safe to fail systems would prioritize an “investor” style whereby, as an example, nine out of 10 projects might end up failing but the remaining one would offer a “step change” in capability.
