U.S. Space Force Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, Space Launch Delta 45 commander, and Assured Access to Space program executive officer, takes a tour of Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif., Oct. 31, 2023. (U.S. Space Force photo by Senior Airman Tiarra Sibley)
SPACE MOBILITY 2025 — The US Space Force is planning 18 launches under its current National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 2 program in 2025, along with four small launches carrying payloads under 400 pounds, according to Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, the program executive officer for assured access to space.
That includes, she told to the third annual Space Mobility Conference in Orlando, Fla., missions to be conducted by United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan heavy lifter — despite the fact that the Space Force has yet to certify the rocket to carry NSSL payloads following a problem during its second qualifying launch in October.
Speaking to reporters afterwards, Panzenhagen said that of those 18 planned launches, 11 were slated for Vulcan and seven for SpaceX’s Falcon 9.
Col. Jim Horne, senior material leader for launch execution systems whose shop is overseeing ULA’s certification process, said during the media briefing that the Space Force is “still working through” the problem that caused a nozzle on one of the solid rocket boosters to fall off. The service is “targeting mid-February” for being able to give the all clear to Vulcan, “depending on how some of the anomaly investigation activities go.”
Panzenhagen further noted that the service is planning to begin launches under the next phase of the NSSL program, called Phase 3, in 2025. Those would be under Phase 3 Lane 1, which covers launches to easier to reach orbits, payloads with less mass, and missions that are not absolute must-gos. Lane 1 launch providers also face fewer “certification requirements,” she said, including only having to complete one successful launch meeting Space Force requirements.
For example, while she said that all the data has yet to be collected and analyzed, Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket is expected to become Phase 3 Lane 1 certified. New Glenn made its maiden launch on Jan. 16.
“The early indications are that the payload got to where it needed to be. So, as we’re going through the data, something still could be flagged where we would say, ‘Wait, this doesn’t fully count. But the early indications are that it does look like for our purposes it was a successful launch,” Panzenhagen elaborated.
Panzenhagen said that the “launch cadence” at both the service’s Eastern Range at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida and the Western Range at Vandenberg SFB in California will be higher in 2025 than in 2024.
“I would expect 2026 is going to be higher as well. We’ve been going up pretty steadily in about a 25-to- 30 percent increase per year, and I think we’ll continue to increase at that rate, or at least the next couple years,” she said.
This “ops tempo” is worrying for the Space Force, Panzenhagen said, because of personnel shortfalls. At the moment, she explained, the number of billets being funded is based on the launch rates for 2017.
“We’ve implemented automation, we’ve re-looked at processes and streamlined a lot of things, but it does continue to be a stressing ops tempo when it comes to manpower,” she said.
Panzenhagen said her focus going forward is “resiliency” across her portfolio, which includes launch vehicles, range infrastructure and capacity, and base security.
“I want resiliency in the different types of launch vehicles that we have, so, if you have a fleet running anomaly, you have other launch vehicles that you can look to other families and launch vehicles. I want resiliency across companies so, God forbid, if a company has a strike or a serious financial issue that would prevent them from continuing operations, I have other options. Resiliency across supply chains, because if something happens in another sector, we want to make sure that they continue to launch,” she said.
The Space Force also is working to increase the number of launches at both ranges by speeding payload processing, Panzenhagen explained.
“One bottleneck is payload processing facility. So, we are very fortunate to get a congressional add in 2024 that will go towards expanding payload processing capacity on the Western Range. We are hopeful to get an add in 2025 to do something similar in the Eastern Range. We’re using an innovative acquisition strategy called the commercial solutions opening to be able to quickly obligate those funds and get that capability realized,” she said.
Likewise, Panzenhagen noted, the service has been working to improve base security, including beefing up cybersecurity.
“We’re really investing in defense at the two space ports — whether it’s physical security, cybersecurity, just across the board — and we’re exercising all these things too to make sure that you know when the bad day comes we know how to react and we know how to react quickly, and, ideally, we know how to mitigate,” she said.
In the end, Panzenhagen said, it all comes down to ensuring that the warfighters can do their job of deterring adversary aggression.
“I see our ability to deter based on the launch capacity we have, our readiness, our resiliency, because ultimately, we have a deterrent effect when the adversary knows that,” she said.
