A Russian navy officer salutes aboard corvette Velikiy Ustyug is picture at the Russian naval base in the Syrian Mediterranean port of Tartus on September 26, 2019. (Photo by MAXIME POPOV/AFP via Getty Images)
BEIRUT — The dust is yet to settle in Damascus after the sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, leaving anxious officials and observers to watch closely for signs of what’s to come.
There are a myriad of questions to be answered; among the most pressing occupying the minds of American and Middle Eastern officials is whether extremism will take root in the power vacuum.
But several experts told Breaking Defense their eyes were on other key flashpoints that could affect the balance of power in the region for years to come, from the fate of Russian military bases in Syria to the potential collapse of an Iranian weapons pipeline to the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
“The fall of the Assad regime will have dire consequences for [Russia and Iran’s] regional influence,” Ali Bakir, professor at Qatar University and non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, told Breaking Defense. “The pressing question for the ordinary citizens in Tehran and Moscow is: What have we gained from propping up this regime for nearly 14 years? How can our leadership explain the huge political, financial, and military investment in this regime?”
What Happens To Russia’s Military Bases In Syria?
Before this week, Moscow in part projected power in Syria and beyond through two military installations: Hemeimeem air base near Latakia and Tartus naval base on the Mediterranean.
But now, with the Kremlin’s benefactor reportedly having fled to Russia, the fate of the bases appears up in the air.
“Our top priority remains the safety of all Russian citizens within Syrian territory and the protection of Russian facilities and missions, including diplomatic and military installations, as well as those connected to Russian companies and organizations,” Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday.
Open source intelligence photos indicate that Russian military ships have departed from Tartus naval base, while only few aircraft were detected via satellite imagery at Hmeimim airbase.
“We’re seeing Russia consolidate assets and … some naval vessels are leaving that area,” Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters on Wednesday. “Again, it remains to be seen what the path forward is in Syria; that is up for the Syrian people to decide.”
Likewise Bakir said it makes sense for Russia to remove its vessels while there may be an “imminent threat to its troops or military assets,” but it’s an open question if Russian ships will return.
“The military bases in question are owned by the Syrians. Whether Moscow will utilize them in the future depends on the internal situation in Syria and any agreements with the current or the future governing power or government,” he said.
He said he believed that it seems improbable that “whoever controls Syria would permit Russia to station its troops or military assets within the country. Regarding the mid-term and long-term, the situation will rely on numerous variables that cannot be fully accounted for at this time.”
Kristian Alexander, a senior fellow at the United Arab Emirate-based Rabdan Security and Defence Institute, said there are essentially three options: Russia negotiates with the new Syrian government to keep use of the bases, the insurgents reject Russian presence altogether for its past support of Assad, or Moscow determines the situation is too “volatile” to risk maintaining a military presence anyway and doesn’t attempt to return.
“It could abandon these bases altogether,” Alexander told Breaking Defense. “This would mark a significant geopolitical shift, potentially ceding influence [to] Western or regional powers like Turkey.”
What About Iran’s Lifeline To Hezbollah?
Assad’s fall may be troubling for close ally Iran for a number of reasons, including a practical one: logistics. Officials and experts have long said that Syria, along with Iraq, acted as an overland route through which Tehran could supply and arm the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
But with Assad’s fall has come rebel control of much of that route, including Al-Boukamal, a key border crossing between Syria and Iraq, in essence “cutting off supply lines from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to retired Lebanese Armed Forces Gen. Wehbe Katicha.
In a recent analysis, the Council on Foreign Relations said Israel had also reportedly struck Iranian missile facilities in Damascus “that had nourished Hezbollah’s previously formidable array of long-, medium-, and short-range missiles and rockets.”
“The rebel victory in Syria … thus poses an existential threat to Hezbollah,” the analysis said.
As Bakir told Breaking Defense, “it’s only a matter of time before Hezbollah’s influence diminishes, even internally in Lebanon.”
He added that Tehran may have to adapt to the new reality and become more pragmatic, “or they might try to sabotage where they can, or they might opt to buy time, rebuild their regional position, and maneuver until [President-elect Donald] Trump’s term ends, at which point they could return with a new regional strategy. Whether this will happen remains to be seen.”
What About Iraq?
Having lost its ally in Syria, Alexander said Iran may turn more of its attention to neighboring Iraq, where US officials say it already props up Shi’a militias.
“With the fall of Damascus Iran will likely reinforce its position in Iraq, maintain a base of operations and exert indirect influence over Syria through shared borders and cross-border militias,” he said. “These groups are likely to intensify their activities along the Iraq-Syria border to ensure the continuity of supply lines and maintain a connection to remnants of pro-Iran factions in Syria.”
But Bakir suggested Syria’s fall could, on the contrary, push those militias closer to the Iraqi government.
“[Assad’s collapse] will shift the attention to them [Iraqi militias], and they will increasingly fall under internal, regional, and international pressure to join the Iraqi official institutions and bodies rather than to serve the Iranian agenda within the framework of Iraq or neighboring Syria,” he said.
So, like the other questions on this list, the answers remain to be seen and may not be known for weeks or months. The only thing that’s certain is that power dynamic in the Middle East has already shifted for years or decades to come.
