Two Philippine Air Force FA-50PHs in the 2024 US-Philippine joint Maritime Cooperative Activity in the West Philippine Sea. (Philippine Air Force)
SYDNEY — The Philippines has decided to double the size of its FA-50 light fighter fleet, reportedly buying another 12 from South Korea, in a move that analysts told Breaking Defense won’t get China off Manila’s back but could complicate Beijing’s plans.
The new order, revealed by the Philippines Department of National Defense in a Procurement Monitoring Report earlier this month, is valued at P40 billion ($683 million). The document doens’t list aircraft figures, but media reports, like the Asia Pacific Defense Journal, say it’s for a dozen of the airframes.
The additional fighters represent a significant leap in capability for the vast island archipelago, two analysts told Breaking Defense, but they are unlikely to pose a serious threat to China’s most advanced fighters, such as the J-20.
China has persistently and often daringly pressed Philippine forces to try and dislodge them from the Thomas and Sabina Shoals and other features in the South China Sea to which it lays claim.
In addition to any complications for China, the purchase from South Korea’s KAI, following an initial $420 million order placed in 2014, even more closely binds the Philippines to another US ally and highlights the costs to China of its bullying.
“This purchase marks a significant departure from past policy which allowed the Philippine Air Force capability to wither in the post-Cold War years. It marks a policy failure for China as well: the exercise of adversarial grey zone tactics with the maritime militia and coast guard as the vanguard for Chinese sharp power, has effectively backfired,” John Blaxland, head of The Australian National University’s Washington office and China expert, wrote in an email to Breaking Defense.
He said that, despite past concessions from the Philippines to China, “persistent PRC assertiveness has generated growing Philippine resolve to push back and to work more closely with other like-minded powers, other US treaty allies, including not only Korea, but Japan and Australia, and the United States itself.“
Blaxland added, “The increased cooperation with South Korea is significant … but we shouldn’t read too much into it. After all Korea is going through an unprecedented political upheaval that could lead to a significant shift in foreign and defense policy priorities for Korea.”
In terms of the aircraft’s technical capabilities, Malcolm Davis, a China defense expert at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told Breaking Defense the FA-50 is “a capable lightweight fighter, and if flown by a well trained pilot, would certainly pose a challenge for the PLAAF’s older combat aircraft, or combat support assets such as maritime patrol aircraft, or airborne early warning platforms.” But going up against Chinese fighters such as the J-16, J-20 or J-35 would be problematic.
“At the moment they are only equipped with within visual range missiles, so the Chinese have a significant ‘first look, first shot, first kill’ advantage. As the FA-50 is upgraded in the future, with AESA radars, and BVR [Beyond Visual Range] missiles, that advantage should become less apparent,” Davis wrote in an email.
All this raises the bigger question, will China curtail or halt its persistent attempts to claim waters to which a UN tribunal ruled it has no valid claim?
“China will be watching closely to see if the purchase of these aircraft affect Philippine policy towards defense of their interests in the South China Sea,” Blaxland wrote. It will be years before that’s known, “as it will take time for the aircraft to turn up and crews to be fully trained and prepared to use them.”
But he also said he thinks the purchase is especially important because the Philippines Air Force “has long been one of the weakest in the region. Its capability is less than that that which defended the country during the Pacific War in 1942. So this additional capability is a significant leap, but from a low base and China likely won’t be overly intimidated by this.”
Davis also opined that he doubted the PLAAF will change their operational posture much as a result of the PAF getting another squadron of FA-50s. “They may rotate some of the older aircraft (i.e. older J-10s, J-11s or Su-30s) away in favor of deploying newer platforms, but I’d say their overall day-to-day readiness and (force) posture will remain in place,” he wrote.
