MSPO preview: Poland’s air dominance battle could take center stage

BELFAST — The pace of Poland’s defense modernization has shifted exponentially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, delivering a multimillion dollar spending spree on new equipment including Airborne Early Warning aircraft, helicopters, howitzers, light combat aircraft, multi-launch rocket launchers and tanks. Additional deals are on the way as Warsaw looks to wean itself off Soviet era platforms.

In March, Paweł Bejda, secretary of state at Poland’s Ministry of National Defence, told lawmakers more than 150 military contracts are due to be signed this year alone, so a spate of orders could be signed off at the International Defense Industry Exhibition (MSPO) to match such ambition.

Previous editions of Poland’s annual defense show, held in Kielce, around 315 kilometers (195.7 miles) from Lviv, Ukraine, were often complicated by indecision over big ticket acquisitions, political upheaval and uncertain funding. But the Ukraine war has largely ended those trends, resulting in a transformative uplift in defense spending that, according to NATO estimates, will see Warsaw spend 4.1 percent GDP in 2024, exceeding all other nations in the alliance for a second consecutive year. In 2025, that figure is planned to increase to 5 percent.

Nor is there any underestimation of Russia’s threat from top ranking military officials. Polish Army chief of staff Gen. Wieslaw Kukula said in July that the country’s armed forces must be prepared for a “full-scale conflict,” according to Reuters.

Political leaders have struck a similar tone. “We must arm ourselves in such a way, secure ourselves in such a way, build up the potential of the Polish army so large that no one ever dares to invade us,” said Polish President Andrzej Duda during an address on Poland’s armed forces day earlier this month. “This is the most important security work and task facing those in power today.”

Though a wide variety of army vehicles will be on display at MSPO, Poland’s air dominance requirement push, based on the acquisition of 32 new fighter jets, is likely to be in the spotlight.

Boeing’s F-15EX and the Eurofighter Typhoon are contesting the procurement, though Warsaw has also said that it could instead opt to buy additional Lockheed Martin F-35A jets, building off the $4.6 billion order for 32 aircraft signed with Washington in 2020. Incidentally, the US manufacturer unveiled Poland’s first jet in a ceremony at its Fort Worth, Texas, production facility on Wednesday. Deliveries are expected to run until 2030.

Maj. Gen. Cezary Wisniewski, deputy commander of the Polish armed forces, told Breaking Defense last year that a team of his dispatched to Italy had discussed Eurofighter capabilities and “marketing numbers” with the plane maker, but also stressed that a contract award decision would take additional time as a new government had still to take office.