Boeing NGAD

A Boeing rendering of a next-gen fighter. (Boeing photo)

SYDNEY — On Dec. 26, the People’s Republic of China celebrated the birthday of its founder Mao Zedong by unofficially unveiling two new advanced aircraft designs. And while details on those jets are thin, experts tell Breaking Defense that there are hints about how the new systems could impact American interests in the region.

The planes appear in videos that leaked out on social media. It’s unclear the provenance of the videos, but the fact they penetrated China’s formidable firewalls and have remained online indicates that the “leaks” have official sanction.

The videos show two planes of previously unknown design. The larger plane, which appears as an advanced flying wing design somewhat reminiscent of the American B-2 and B-21 bombers, has been dubbed in public discussions as the Chengdu J-36, called such because it is believed to have flown from Chengdu Aircraft Corporation’s (CAC) headquarters. The second plane, which is less clear, appears to be fighter sized and likely came from Shenyang Aerospace Corporation (SAC). 

Several experts on advanced Chinese and US aircraft say the larger J-36 is probably designed for long-range operations and to carry a large weapons load. (CAC also builds China’s premier fighter, the stealthy J-20.)

“The tailless design is intended to be stealthy and the delta-wing design is intended to give it long-range. It is about the same size as a strike-fighter, so I don’t think it is intended to be a B-21 [bomber] analog,” Bryan Clark, an expert at the Hudson Institute in Washington, said in an email to Breaking Defense.

What is the J-36 being built to do?

“With respect to the actual CCP advanced aircraft, these don’t look like aircraft with traditional air to air characteristics,” Dave Deptula, the head of the Air and Space Force’s Association’s Mitchell Institute, said in an email to Breaking Defense. “More like very stealthy with large payload bays (to carry long-range weapons) so they can get close enough to get off first shots against U.S. high value aircraft…and/or deliver ordnance (missiles or bombs) against U.S./allied high value surface targets, to include surface ships.”

Malcom Davis, a China expert at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told Breaking Defense in an email that the “large weapons bay on the J-36 gives it the ability to be an excellent long-range air interceptor that would be optimized against US and allied combat support platforms such as AWACS/AEW, tankers, and other reconnaissance MPA-type platforms.”

That “would make it more difficult for US Navy carrier aviation to project power inside the first island chain, if their key combat support platforms cannot survive in the face of a high-speed, long range, stealthy interceptor like the J-36,” David said.

The Chinese have long made much of their long-range and high-speed missiles like the DF-21, with its presumed ability to strike US carriers and targets such as Guam.

Because the smaller, second aircraft is harder to see, experts had less to weigh in on. But Davis posited that “its fully maneuverable tail fins are highly innovative, allowing superior stealth when flat and superior maneuverability when active.”

He thinks the SAC is a shorter-range platform, with less payload than the J-36, “so maybe its optimized for operations within the first island chain, whilst the CAC J-36 has much greater speed and range and payload,” Davis said. “Simply put, we need more information on the SAC platform to make sensible analysis, and this is why most analysis is on the CAC platform.”

How Advanced Are The New Chinese Jets?

While the Peoples Liberation Army may have flown two new aircraft, the question is how they can impact American strategic thinking.

As a whole, Chinese aircraft “appear to be well behind their US counterparts in stealth, sensor fusion, and speed/maneuverability,” Clark said. “This is because, while the PRC can steal or emulate the exterior elements of a US design, the mission systems, stealth coatings, and propulsion/control technologies inside are either highly-classified and therefore hard to access or difficult to replicate with indigenous Chinese technology.”

He and Davis both pointed to the Chinese struggles to build jet engines with high-quality and durable turbines.

“China’s jet engine and avionics industries are immature, which is why COMAC has not been able to field a viable commercial aircraft until recently and even that aircraft is only being purchased by Chinese carriers who don’t have a choice. Many of China’s military and commercial aircraft depend on western propulsion and avionics parts,” Clark said.

The reality, Clark said, is oftentimes the Chinese build weapon systems that physically mimic what the US has in order to “demonstrate China’s technical prowess and suggest the PLA is not behind the US in weapons development.”

Still, he and other experts painted the J-36 as a potential counterpart to the American Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program — which is currently in a reassessment phase with no guarantee of coming to full fruition. The images of the J-36 should give American planners incentive to keep NGAD moving forward, argued Deptula.

The market appears to agree. At the start of the new year, stock analyst Scott Deuschle of Deutsche Bank downgraded Lockheed Martin stock from a Buy to Hold in part because of the appearance of the Chinese jets. He said they made the case for the F-35 less compelling and increased the need for NGAD.

The developments in China are likely to accelerate the need for NGAD, and the ultimate success in fielding NGAD by the early-mid 2030s could…partially cut into the F-35 procurement program,” Deuschle said.

Davis believes the J-36’s appearance “will inject new urgency into the US NGAD/FA-XX programs, as well as GCAP. There will be concern, especially in the new Trump Administration, that China could steal a lead in next generation (or sixth generation) aircraft.”

He points out that “NGAD is on hold pending review in the Trump Admin — and I’m willing to bet Trump will say ‘damn the torpedoes’ and fund the full project simply to avoid being left in the wake of the CAC-J-36 and whatever may follow. GCAP too will become much more urgent in terms of delivery, and the large size of the J-36 — and the configuration of GCAP — may drive US designers to think about a larger platform, where speed, stealth, payload and range are more important.”

Davis predicted the Chinese will push hard and fast to deploy these new aircraft.

“You will recall how quickly the Chinese moved to deploy the J-20 operationally after its first flight in 2011, and the Chinese will  be incentivized to repeat or improve on that, most notably because the CAC J-36 and the SAC platforms will light a fire under the USAF/USN and DoD re NGAD and F/A-XX,” Davis wrote.

“Beijing won’t want to waste an opportunity to humiliate the US by operationally deploying a sixth-gen platform before the US. So I’m tipping we won’t be waiting ten years for this to enter service — look for the J-36 in particular to enter service before the end of this decade.”