US Air Force artist’s rendering of the Sentinel in flight. (Credit: US Air Force)
WASHINGTON — For the US Air Force, 2024 was supposed to mark the beginning of the next generation.
That was true in many cases: The service made significant headway for its drone wingmen program and in a related effort demonstrated that an AI-piloted jet can make for a formidable adversary, as well as certifying the F-35A to carry a nuclear weapon.
But other efforts experienced setbacks. From the Air Force’s ballooning costs for a new, nuclear-tipped ICBM to a pause for its Next Generation Air Dominance fighter, questions now hang over some of the service’s leading priorities.
In semi-particular order, here are the top five air warfare stories of 2024.
[This article is one of many in a series in which Breaking Defense reporters look back on the most significant (and entertaining) news stories of 2024 and look forward to what 2025 may hold.]
1. ‘No alternatives’: Pentagon doubles down as new Sentinel ICBM’s cost jumps to $141 billion
Air Force leaders had long warned the Sentinel ICBM would run into trouble, but even after an early preview of rising costs, many in Washington were caught flat-footed by a startling new price tag estimated to be 81 percent higher than originally forecast.
Sentinel is now consuming the Air Force’s budget, much to the dismay of service leaders eager to fund other priorities. Despite its exploding costs, officials determined through a congressionally-mandated review that there are “no alternatives” for the new ICBM, casting aside other options like road-mobile ICBMs or an extension of the Minuteman III fleet.
And what drove the new estimate? Bad assumptions and “unknown unknowns,” Air Force officials explained. It’s been decades since the Pentagon has undertaken a similar project, leading to unwelcome discoveries — the bulk of them concentrated in the construction element of the project. Multiply that problem over hundreds of silos, thousands of miles of cabling and countless easements, and the bill quickly runs up.
2. F-35A officially certified to carry nuclear bomb
Reporters sweat the details of their stories, but being drawn into the global nuclear balance of power can be particularly daunting. And that’s what happened when Breaking Defense reported the F-35A was certified to carry the B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bomb — news apparently noticed by the Kremlin, as it was quickly picked up by Russian state media.
The certification meant that the F-35 became the first stealth fighter in the world approved to carry a nuke. Alongside the US, fellow NATO nations and F-35 operators Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands — and Germany once Berlin’s jets are delivered — can now complement the traditional nuclear triad of submarines, ballistic missiles and bombers with fast-moving, forward-deployed stealth fighters.
All as nuclear tensions ratchet higher over the war in Ukraine. Looking to you, proponents of deterrence theory.
3. V-22 Ospreys barred from full mission capability until ‘mid-2025’: NAVAIR boss
After a long string of incidents, a crash of the V-22 Osprey in November 2023 prompted officials to significantly scale back operations with the troubled tiltrotor, later admitting that the aircraft won’t resume its full mission profile until mid-2025. The incident ignited anger among lawmakers, leading some to threaten canceling the program altogether if another aircraft crashed.
Recent reporting has also shed light on the aircraft’s troubles, such as an internal report showing that warnings of a mechanical issue that caused the November 2023 crash were known for at least a decade. Other reporting has revealed a recent concerning rise in severe incidents and that underlying manufacturing issues carry wider implications for military and civilian aircraft.
The aircraft’s woes continue: On Dec. 9, officials confirmed that the Osprey’s operations would once again be paused following a recent in-flight incident.
4. In a ‘world first,’ DARPA project demonstrates AI dogfighting in real jet
Few announcements this year had a bigger impact on the future of warfare than when DARPA, the Air Force and industry vendors revealed that an F-16 tricked out to serve as an autonomy testbed can not only fly itself, but also dogfight. Officials declined to disclose specifics results from those trials like a win/loss ratio, but after Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall took a ride himself in the special F-16, he described the AI as putting on roughly an even match against a seasoned pilot.
Many officials think human pilots will stick around for the foreseeable future, their abilities augmented by manned-unmanned teaming arrangements. And, Kendall has emphasized, any highly autonomous weapon systems will only be flown under tight human control. As more experiments like the DARPA project proceed and autonomous capabilities only get better, time will tell whether the future is closer than it seems.
5. Air Force picks Anduril, General Atomics for next round of CCA work
The Air Force made significant strides this year for its effort to field drone wingmen, known as Collaborative Combat Aircraft. After Breaking Defense first reported the five industry vendors in play for the CCA program’s first round of procurement, the Air Force winnowed that group to two, leaving startup Anduril and legacy dronemaker General Atomics still standing.
Heralding a revolution in airpower, officials hope CCA can offset numerical advantages enjoyed by China as the Air Force’s own fighter inventory shrinks. One day, these drones might even take the place of manned fighters — and if incoming Department of Government Efficiency co-lead Elon Musk has his way, that day could come sooner rather than later.
