The Arleigh-Burke class guided missile destroyer USS Barry (DDG-52) transits in the Taiwan Strait. (US Navy photo by Ensign Samuel Hardgrove)
WASHINGTON — Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti has ordered the US Navy to be prepared for the possibility of conflict with China over Taiwan in 2027. But for better or worse, the Navy the US has today is largely the one it will have in 2027, and what last-minute preparations Franchetti can make will be my focus in the new year.
In the Pentagon, there are three budgets that exist. (Technically, Congress has not yet passed an appropriations bill for 2025, but for the sake of simplicity, let’s assume they will by March.) That means the budgets in play next year will be the one being executed, fiscal 2025; the one being debated on Capitol Hill, FY26; and the one being crafted inside the Pentagon, FY27. In other words, the service has just one more budget cycle to make meaningful pre-2027 changes to its fleet composition that haven’t already been publicly disclosed. As Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn., likes to say, “Shipbuilding is a long game.” One year is not enough time for dramatic change, as long-time Congressional Budget Office analyst Eric Labs pointed out earlier this month.
Which leaves the question of: What can the Navy do before then to prepare for a potential conflict with China? The answer the service has presented comes from Franchetti’s recently published Navigation Plan, which includes her “Project 33,” the spearheading initiative setting the service’s focus on 2027. Franchetti lays out numerous goals but one that stands out to me is her focus on 80 percent surge readiness.
[This article is one of many in a series in which Breaking Defense reporters look back on the most significant (and entertaining) news stories of 2024 and look forward to what 2025 may hold.]
“Think back to 9/11. We know that all of a sudden we need to get ships underway to do different missions … We want to be able to have a process through each one of our communities: aviation, surface and submarines, that they can certify a ship as combat surge ready, and get it out the door on the timeline that it’s needed,” she told reporters earlier this year.
It certainly seems like a worthwhile goal, but the Navy’s struggles with maintenance keeping pace with operational tempo — even in peacetime, never mind wartime — are well documented. The CNO will be trying to rapidly overcome problems that I suspect many, if not all, of her predecessors, and their respective counterparts in the Commandant’s office, grappled with when they were at helm.
Franchetti has also taken to using the phrase “Getting more players on the field,” referring to building traditional warships, but also unmanned vessels, among other efforts. The service has spent considerable time and money in the first half of the 2020s going through the steps to incorporate unmanned surface and subsurface vessels into its fleet. And there are success stories such as Saildrones patrolling the seas in support of 4th Fleet. My focus in 2025 will be watching to see if the service can maintain its momentum in adding unmanned vessels to its fleet and when will we more frequently hear about those vessels’ inclusion in real-world operations alongside the manned fleet. Engaging Houthis alongside a carrier strike group in the Red Sea is a vastly different mission than surveilling the coast of South America.
Lastly, there’s the money. Franchetti’s plan states candidly that without a larger budget, the service will face “deep strategic constraints.” When faced with a difficult financial situation this past year, the service opted to heavily cut into its future modernization budget to make up the difference. Cutting funds for next-generation strike fighter development was one big bill payer.
While conventional wisdom suggests a Trump administration will certainly request more funding for defense, whether Congress — with all its varying factions, even within the GOP alone — provides that higher level of funding is still very much a question in my mind. How the Navy copes with whatever money it does receive will be a key point on my watch list in 2025.
For those who haven’t heard Franchetti speak publicly recently, she has said she has a countdown timer in her office indicating the number of days until 2027. China and its intentions toward Taiwan are clearly at the front of mind for the CNO; she has it put it at the front of mind for her service and, indeed, it will be front of mind for me in the new year.
