F-35s, frigates and FRA woes: Here are the issues facing Congress in upcoming FY25 budget process

WASHINGTON — Can congressional defense hawks make a successful gambit for additional military funding in fiscal 2025? That’s one of the many questions Congress will have to attend to when lawmakers come back to Capitol Hill next week.

On one side, the House has opted to align its defense spending and policy proposals with last year’s Fiscal Responsibility Act, which set a $895.2 billion limit for defense spending in FY25 as part of a larger debt ceiling deal.

However, the Senate committees responsible for helming its defense spending and policy bills are pushing to expand defense spending past those budget caps, potentially adding tens of billions of dollars for the Pentagon in a year where its own budget request does not exceed inflation.

When Congress returns from recess, its first order of business will be approving a funding stopgap to keep money rolling to federal agencies before current spending expires at the end of Sept. 30. Then, the real work starts.

The House has already passed its version of the National Defense Authorization Act and defense spending bill, but the Senate has lagged behind, with neither bill having made it to the floor for debate. That disparity could complicate the NDAA reconciliation process for the Senate and House armed services committees, Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Va., said on Wednesday.

“I do think that the top line number is going to have to be at $833 [billion], just because of the FRA,” he said during the Defense News conference. “The other elements there, I think are all things that are negotiable.”

Further complicating the budget process is the looming presidential election in November — which will install a new administration in the White House no matter whether Democrats or Republicans win the day — as well as congressional elections that could flip the House and Senate.

“We expect a CR to December, with the next step determined by the outcome of the 2024 election,” said Byron Callan, a defense analyst with Capital Alpha Partners, in a note to investors. “Congress is likely to add to the FY25 budget request, though impacts on contractors will be uneven.”

With a whirlwind of budget activity set to play out over the rest of 2024 (and potentially into next year), Breaking Defense breaks down how each defense committee would allocate funds across eight critical areas.

Defense Budget Topline

Topline budget numbers among the appropriations and authorizing committees aren’t apples to apples, with no single bill containing the whole of national defense spending.

The NDAA — which sanctions funds but does not actually obligate them  — includes the Defense Department as well as defense spending within the Department of Energy, but does not include about $11.5 billion in national security spending outside the jurisdiction of the House and Senate armed services committees.

Meanwhile, House and Senate defense appropriations bills cover the Defense Department and some intelligence-related spending, but not defense spending at the Department of Energy.

President’s budget: The White House requested $895.2 billion in total national defense spending for FY25, with $849.8 billion for the Defense Department – a request that aligns with the Fiscal Responsibility Act.

House NDAA: Authorizes $883.7 billion total, with $849.8 billion for the Defense Department and $33.8 billion for defense spending from the Department of Energy. The bill is consistent with the Fiscal Responsibility Act.

House defense appropriations: Includes $833 billion in defense spending, consistent with the Fiscal Responsibility Act.  

Senate Armed Services Committee NDAA: Authorizes $908.4 billion total, with $878.4 billion for the Defense Department and $33.4 billion for defense programs within the Energy Department. This bill breaks the FRA limits, with congressional aides telling Breaking Defense that it adds about $25 billion in total national defense spending.

Senate Appropriations Committee defense appropriations bill: Funds a $852.2 billion defense spending bill. Appropriators agreed to include an additional $21 billion for defense and $13.5 billion in discretionary nondefense spending above the FRA limits. However, because that money is designated as emergency funds, it would not trigger across-the-board spending cuts.

F-35 Joint Strike Fighter:

President’s budget: Requested a total of 68 jets: 42 F-35As for the Air Force, 13 F-35Bs for the Marine Corps, and 13 F-35Cs for the Department of the Navy (nine for the Navy and four for the Marine Corps).

House NDAA: Cut 10 aircraft for a total of 58 F-35s, while also fencing in funding for 10 aircraft unless the Defense Department fulfills a list of requirements that includes resolving technical deficiencies and creating a “digital twin” of the aircraft.

House defense appropriations: Added 8 aircraft (two F-35As for the Air Force and six F-35Cs for the Navy and Marine Corps) for a total of 76 F-35s.

SASC NDAA: Kept the same as the president’s budget request.

SAC defense appropriations bill: Funds the number of F-35s requested by the Defense Department, but  “recommends several targeted reductions, based on unearned award fees due to aircraft delivery delays, prior year actual spending on efforts such as non-recurring engineering, and delivery delays associated with TR–3 aircraft modifications,” according to the committee report.

C-130:

President’s budget: No C-130s requested

House NDAA: Authorizes two C-130s

House defense appropriations: Funds two C-130Js and two KC-130Js for a total of four aircraft

SASC NDAA: Authorizes two C-130s

SAC defense appropriations bill: Funds eight C-130s

Virginia-class Submarine:

President’s budget: Requests one Virginia-class submarine

House NDAA: Authorizes two Virginia-class submarines, adding $1 billion to begin buying a second boat

House defense appropriations: Funds one Virginia-class submarine

SASC NDAA: Authorizes one Virginia-class submarine

SAC defense appropriations bill: Funds one Virginia-class submarine

Constellation-class frigate:

President’s budget: Requested one Constellation-class frigate

House NDAA: Eliminates funds for Constellation-class frigate

House defense appropriations: Eliminates funds for Constellation-class frigate

SASC NDAA: Authorizes funding for frigate but recommends prohibiting funds to be obligated “until the Secretary of Defense certifies that 95 percent of functional design drawings have been approved by the designated technical authority.”

SAC defense appropriations bill: Funds one Constellation-class frigate

Arleigh Burke-class destroyer:

President’s budget: Requests two destroyers

House NDAA: Authorizes two destroyers

House defense appropriations: Funds two destroyers

SASC NDAA: Funds three destroyers

SAC defense appropriations bill: Funds three destroyers 

F-15EX:

President’s budget: Requests 18 F-15EXs.

House NDAA: Authorizes 18 F-15EXs, adds $271 million for advanced procurement for FY26 jets.

House defense appropriations: Funds 18 F-15EXs.

SASC NDAA: Adds six F-15EXs, authorizing a total of 24 jets.

SAC defense appropriations bill: Adds six F-15EXs, funding a total of 24 jets.

Transfer of Guard Units to Space Force:

Air Force legislative proposal: A proposal submitted by the Department of the Air Force after the release of the FY25 budget calls for legislative language that would allow the Space Force to absorb Air National Guard space units. Governors have overwhelmingly opposed the measure, which calls for an override to existing law that mandates a governor’s approval for changes to a Guard unit.

House NDAA: Requires governors’ approval to transfer Air National Guard space units to the Space Force.

House defense appropriations: Prohibits the movement of National Guard missions, functions or personnel to the Space Force.  

SASC NDAA: Requires the Air National Guard to transfer certain space functions to the Space Force, impacting Guard units from six states. However, the transfer does not reduce the end strength of the Air National Guard, allowing it to increase capacity in other mission areas.

SAC defense appropriations bill: Does not include provisions directly addressing the proposal.

An election curveball: If former President Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, he has said he would create a Space National Guard, potentially rendering this debate moot.