The Chinese military’s new DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles, that can reportedly reach the United States, are seen at a parade to celebrate the 70th Anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, at Tiananmen Square on October 1, 2019 in Beijing, China. (Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON — At a time when the Chinese government is purging its officer rolls and dealing with a slowing economy, it has continued growing its nuclear arsenal and conventional arms ambitions, according to a new Pentagon report.
That finding is part of the Pentagon’s congressionally mandated 2024 China Military Power Report, an annual document providing US insights into the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) strategy and weapons development.
This year’s report, largely covering 2023 activities, does not offer up any new bombshells about PLA weapon development or strategy, but still serves as a valuable window into the US government’s perspective on Chinese military activities.
When it comes to the ongoing military purge inside China, a senior US defense official said, “The PLA [People’s Liberation Army] continues to struggle with deeply rooted problems of corruption.”
In the second half of 2023 alone, at least 15 high ranking military officials and defense industry executives were removed from their posts for corruption, the official told reporters Monday ahead of the report’s release. Several of those officials were directly responsible for overseeing equipment projects related to modernizing China’s ground based nuclear and conventional missiles.
For now, the Pentagon anticipates that this anti-corruption push will continue, in part, because Beijing believes that keeping weak or corrupt leaders in key positions inside the PLA, it could potentially slow China down from achieving its 2027 weapon modernization goals and, eventually, trying to reunify with Taiwan, the US defense official added.
The official threw cold water on the much-ballyhooed fear that an invasion of Taiwan is on the calendar, saying “On 2027, I would reiterate that we don’t think that conflict [with Taiwan] is imminent or inevitable: We think that we have deterrence today that’s real and strong.”
Still, “We do judge that that is a capability development milestone that could give the PLA greater capacity to be a more credible military tool for the Chinese Communist Party’s unification efforts,” the official later added.
When it comes to China’s arsenal of weapons, the report doesn’t disclose any massive departure from previous predictions. The PLA is still on track to hit its goal of having 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, and as of mid-2024, that stockpile had surpassed 600 — roughly 100 more than was listed in last year’s report.
“We’re showing a rate of growth that is pretty well consistent with what we’ve described in reports over the past… few years, about their nuclear expansion and modernization,” the US senior defense official added.
Also similar to last year’s report, the US assesses that the PRC has completed construction of its three solid-propellant silo fields, which will cumulatively contain at least 300 new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) silos. And the PRC is also still interested in developing a new, conventionally armed, intercontinental range missile system that could strike targets in Hawaii, Alaska and inside the continental United States — an idea disclosed last year and not expanded on.
The PRC’s space industry, meanwhile, is “rapidly expanding” its intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, navigation, and communication satellite constellations, according to the report.
“Through 2030, the PRC will continue to leverage its nonmilitary and commercial space activities to expand its global influence,” it added. “Beijing’s policies to encourage private investment in space activities have influenced a broad range of firms to enter the commercial space market.”
The PLA Navy. meanwhile, has maintained a fleet of “more than” 370 ships and submarines, while the PLA Air Force continued to modernize its aircraft and drones.
“The PLA transferred significant portions of PLA [Navy] shore-based, fixed-wing combat aviation units, facilities, air defense, and radar units to the PLA [Air Force],” the report said. “Given time, this shift will probably enable better command and control over the PRC’s integrated air defense systems as well as the network of ground-based air domain awareness radars supporting the PRC’s national integrated air defense system network.”
