A China Coast Guard ship (L) is seen from the Philippine Coast Guard vessel BRP Cabra during a supply mission to Sabina Shoal in disputed waters of the South China Sea on August 26, 2024. (Photo by JAM STA ROSA/AFP via Getty Images)
SYDNEY — Turmoil, violence and reaction. That was the theme of 2024 across the Indo-Pacific, with China’s belligerence and attempts to remake the international order to its liking at its core driving many decisions of the nations in the theater.
In several instances this year Chinese forces engaged in hostile behavior, ramming Philippine ships, allegedly attacking Vietnamese fishermen and threatening Taiwan. But the actions were not without repercussions as they drove China’s neighbors and NATO countries to sign major new agreements, increase exercises, sail more joint Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) and bang the diplomatic drums more loudly and more often.
Japan made among the biggest moves in 2024. Tokyo and Canberra signed a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), clearing the way for regular deployments of Japanese marines to Australia, similar to the rotational force the US Marines have at what Australians call the Top End. Japan and Britain also signed an RAA. Japan also announced its biggest defense spending increase since World War II in September.
“The international community is facing the greatest post-war trial yet, and has entered a new era of crisis,” the first page of the their defense budget declared.
In the Pacific Islands, scene of much turmoil over the last two years as China pressed to gain advantage in the region, the situation has seemed to stabilize in favor of Australia and its allies.
Nauru, the troubled island that once had the world’s highest GDP per capital and now faces possible ruin from climate change, agreed to accept $64 million USD from Australia in return for a veto of future Chinese activities in the tiny island. Nauru President David Adeang came to Canberra and signed the agreement on Dec. 9. This is similar to a treaty with Tuvalu, the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union, which came into force in late August this year.
In addition, the Pacific Island states agreed to join an Australian initiative to improve the region’s police forces. Australia committed $400 million AUD ($253 million USD) over five years, which included creation of a regional training center in Brisbane, which opened the day after the Nauru treaty was agreed.
The Chinese military itself also wasn’t free of internal turmoil, which came into clear view with the suspension from office of a senior member of the powerful Central Military Commission and the previous disappearance of China’s third defense minister.
All that “does not give a sense of stability within the PLA [People’s Liberation Army],” Meia Nouwens of the International Institute for Strategic Sutfies told Breaking Defense earlier this month when the story broke.
One of the few events largely divorced from China of great import in the region was the remarkable declaration of martial law — and its retraction — by South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol. Now that Yoon has avoided immediate impeachment, there may be more regional stability than first expected, but his actions did, analysts said, put the crucial General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) with Japan at risk because the opposition is likely to suspend or scrap if should they take power. There is also concern among China watchers that should the opposition take power, they are likely to listen more carefully to Chinese policymakers than did Yoon.
AUKUS Anxiety
Meanwhile, threading through all these events has been the uncertain course of AUKUS, the massive effort by Australia, the UK and the US to help Australia buy at least three Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines and build a small fleet of SSN AUKUS boats over the next 20-plus years at an estimated cost of $368 billion AUD ($237 billion USD).
Australia’s defense budget will not increase in real terms until after the next election — likely to be held by March or April next year — at least. Sir Angus Houston, former chief of the defense force and co-author of the Defense Strategic Review, said in late November that Australia must increase overall defense spending to 3 percent of GDP to avoid cannibalizing the military in order to pay for AUKUS.
The current plan would only boost spending to 2.2 percent of GDP by 2028. And there are signs of concern among senior Australian officials about budget and execution. Australia killed a $5.3 billion AUD satellite contract with Lockheed Martin, which would appear to be very sort of cannibalization Houston worried about. The Australian government claims it has protected the money and will invest in a new approach, but the cut occurred roughly 18 months after the award was announced.
And in a little noticed declaration at a conference in the Indian Ocean focused on AUKUS, an Australian admiral voiced public worry that Australia’s generational effort to buy and deploy nuclear powered submarines was “at risk” if the government does not take quick, decisive action on infrastructure.
The military and government needed to “get going” on crucial work to ready Western Australia for AUKUS submarines or risk falling behind, Rear Adm. Wendy Malcolm said. He added that Australia’s generational effort to buy and deploy nuclear powered submarines is “at risk” if the government does not take quick, decisive action on infrastructure.
