HMCS Montréal, BRP Jose Rizal, BRP Ramon Alcarez and USS Lake Erie sail in formation during a multilateral maritime cooperative activity involving Australia, the Canada, the Philippines and the United States within the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone. (Bryan Underwood ADF)

SYDNEY — As the foreign and defense ministers from Australia and the US meet in Washington this week, the Aussie military has announced a new Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP) that will feature not just the two allies, but ships from Canada and the Philippines as well.

The announcement comes after a mid-June FONOP — in which nations sail military vessels through legally open water as a show of force — that saw Australia, Japanese, Canadian and Filipino ships work together. And analysts say that this is likely a sign of more to come.

The operation, set for today and tomorrow in the South China Sea, is a signaling device to China, which claims that territory for itself despite a legal ruling against that claim. Along those lines, the statement announcing the operation, by Adm. David Johnston, head of the Australian Defense Force, noted that “our four nations reaffirm the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Tribunal Award as a final and legally binding decision on the parties to the dispute.

Collin Joh, an analyst at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies of Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, noted that this effort is part of a  “progression from just bilateral to trilateral, and now quadrilateral maritime cooperative activity (MCA) formats” in the region.

“I suspect this isn’t going to be the last — it’s possible to envisage future different combinations of participating countries involved in the MCA,” Joh told Breaking Defense via email. “With the various existing agreements the Philippines has signed up with these regional parties, including an upcoming one with Canada, these activities look set to continue, even though the timetable for such activities are not likely fixed. But the general commitment by these regional powers is seen to exist.” 

Both Joh and another Singapore-based expert on China and the South China Sea, Ian Chong, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore said they did not expect a strong reaction from China when the forces deploy.

“Regarding risks, there’s not likely going to be much PRC reaction beyond the boilerplate rhetoric urging such exercises not to target third parties and criticizing the Philippines and those regional powers for ramping up tensions in the SCS; and this is likely to be backed by Beijing deploying forces to monitor these exercises, even though they would usually maintain a safe distance,” Koh wrote.

“The risks come down,” Chong wrote via email, “to what exact type of activity and where exactly the activity takes place. There are multiple possibilities right now. If the four states do very minimal activity on the edge of a contested area, it could force the PRC to either accept this behavior or overreact. However, very cautious behavior might also risk being seen as insufficient effective.”

Neither expert said they expected much of a reaction from the ASEAN nations either.

“ASEAN is not expected to issue any statement of sort, and we’ll still have varying reactions from different member states – ranging from silence, ambivalence to veiled criticism. Regarding the latter type of reaction, we’ve seen what Malaysia said recently so it doesn’t come across as surprising. However, most ASEAN member states are expected to be silent,” Koh said in his email. 

It may be a coincidence, but China conducted a joint sea and air patrol around Scarborough Shoal on Wednesday, the Southern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army said.

“All military activities that disrupt the situation in the South China Sea, create hotspots and undermine regional peace and stability, are well under control,” it said in its social media, Sina Weibo, according to the South China Morning Post.