Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin conducts a press briefing at NATO headquarters, Brussels, Belgium, June 16, 2023. (US Air Force Tech. Sgt. Jack Sanders)
RNDF 2024 — With major question marks lingering about the incoming Trump administration’s strategy for Ukraine, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin used his last speech at the annual Reagan National Defense Forum event to tout the importance of Kyiv’s success and unveil a new weapons package.
“This administration has made its choice. So has a bipartisan coalition in Congress,” Austin told an audience today at the defense gathering. “The next administration must make its own choice. But from this library, from this podium, I am confident that President [Ronald] Reagan would have stood on the side of Ukraine, American security, and human freedom.”
There is much speculation about President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to support Kyiv, as he has publicly praised Russian President Vladimir Putin in the past and on the campaign trail called to end the war quickly. That uncertainty has NATO members bracing for uncertainty over how Trump will approach the Ukraine war and if he could force a peace deal that would benefit Putin long term. (Hours before Austin’s speech, Trump was in Paris and met with Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelenskyy.)
Since the election, the Biden administration has rushed to provide as much aid as possible to Ukraine, including an announcement from Austin today of a new $1 billion Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative package with more drones, rockets and sustainment assistance.
“We understand that Putin’s assault on Ukraine is a warning. As I said in October in Kyiv, we are seeing ‘a sneak preview of a world built by tyrants and thugs — a chaotic, violent world carved into spheres of influence; a world where bullies trample their smaller neighbors; and a world where aggressors force free people to live in fear,’” Austin said in prepared remarks.
“So, we can continue to stand up to the Kremlin,” Austin added. “Or we can let Putin have his way — and condemn our children and grandchildren to live in a world of chaos and conflict.”
NATO Planning For Ukraine’s Future
With concerns about Trump’s plans permeating European capitals, there is a sense that NATO nations are scrambling to ensure Ukraine’s survival. But they’re having to be circumspect about it.
Just two weeks ago at the annual Halifax International Security Forum, European defense leaders opted out of the doom and gloom scenario of Trump abandoning Ukraine or NATO itself, instead putting on a brave face when the topic was repeatedly broached.
Tobias Lindner — Germany’s Minister of State at the Federal Foreign Office and the Coordinator of Transatlantic Cooperation with the US — declined to offer up a “self-fulfilling prophecy” that could hamper Ukraine.
“No one, I believe, in Europe, also in Canada, is against peace,” Linder told reporters during a media roundtable. “The discussion is about what kind of peace should it be. We are convinced it needs to be a just and lasting peace based on the principles of the UN Charter.”
But ensuring that a ceasefire doesn’t simply provide Russia with a window to rebuild its military is critical for Ukraine and many European states, he added.
“My prediction would be that any precondition to any agreement from the Ukrainian side would at least include security guarantees and a mechanism on accountability, both on war crimes as well as in reconstruction and on security guarantees,” Linder said.
From his vantage point, the Netherlands Chief of Defence Gen. Onno Eichelsheim said other NATO members need to prepare to “fill in the gaps” if Washington pulls back its support from Ukraine and the alliance.
“It is, once again, our continent. So, it’s our safety first, and that’s why, that’s what we have to take into account, European nations, what we have to do, how we’re going to deal with this,” he told Breaking Defense during an interview on the sidelines of the Halifax forum on Nov. 23. “The US has been the best partner in this forever. So, I hope it will continue like this. But if not, then we have to have the discussion in Europe, how to pick it up.”
