AUKUS, other agreements likely having ‘galvanizing effect’ in Beijing: Aussie ambassador

WASHINGTON — The plethora of recent regional geopolitical agreements involving the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific is likely having a “galvanizing effect” in Beijing, where military planners have long sought “absolute clarity” about the world’s actors and their intentions, according to Kevin Rudd, Australia’s top diplomat to the United States.

Rudd, who in addition to his diplomatic post is also a former prime minister and respected scholar on China, cited the emergence of AUKUS, a rekindled bilateral relationship between the US and the Philippines, an expanded trilateral relationship between the US, Japan and South Korea and activities by the Quad (the security dialogue between the US, India, Japan and Australia) as some examples of those agreements.

“Put all that together if you’re sitting in Beijing … then suddenly, the correlation of forces is looking more complex than it used to only five years ago, frankly,” he said today while speaking at an event hosted by Arizona State University and the non-partisan DC thinktank New America.

Rudd noted that his conclusions were personal and not a formal assessment of the Australian government.

The ambassador said that historically, Chinese military planners have taken solace in their ability to predict how any actor on the world stage might act in response to a given scenario. But the various agreements that have all emerged in the past few years have “spontaneously combusted from countries across the region and beyond, in the case of the United Kingdom.”

It has “therefore presented a much more complex picture” for Beijing to assess, he added.

Rudd’s remarks at the event focused on AUKUS and its progress since its inception in late 2021. The White House and other administration officials, with mixed success, have tried to publicly present the security agreement as focused on stabilizing the Indo-Pacific, rather than explicitly deterring China. But the implications of the United States and United Kingdom sharing its most sensitive military technologies with Australia — at a time when the Pentagon is incessantly warning the public about China’s intentions — has left little doubt in the mind of outside observers about the message Washington, London and Canberra are sending to Beijing.

Rudd added that the United States’ alliances with 43 other countries around the world is a “remarkable strategic advantage” that China lacks.

“The People’s Republic of China has a relationship with North Korea. It has a relationship with, now with Russia, and has a relationship with Pakistan. And beyond that, they do not have the range of geographies which the United States has within its possession,” he said.